This week in the Pokémon card market

94 graded cards sold since Mar 2026; 89 were PSA 10s, and 70% sold for $5,000 or more. Month by month below — these are Cofre's own sales, so the medians move with the mix of cards we sold — read them as what our buyers paid, not as a market index.

• Months with fewer than 5 sales show a count only, so no single sale can be read off the table.

Source: Cofre's sales ledger (graded cards; partial-ownership sales excluded). Individual prices, buyers and costs are never published.

Sales we've published, with the final price and where it sold.

Under $1k: 2 · $1k–5k: 26 · $5k–25k: 43 · $25k+: 23.

Grades with fewer than 5 sales show a count only.

Coming soon: PSA population and gem rates for every card we list and sell, once PSA grants API access.

Opening packs gives back a median 48¢ of card value for every $1 spent (28¢ if you actually sell the cards). Best rip: Temporal Forces at 64¢; worst: Paldean Fates at 29¢. 30th Celebration shows 87¢, but it is under 30 days old and its prices are still settling.

• Elite Trainer Boxes are the costliest way to open: 14¢ (Obsidian Flames) to 74¢ (30th Celebration) per $1, because you also pay for sleeves, dice and a promo.
• Sealed product trades at a median 2.08× the value of the cards inside it; that premium is what you give up by opening.
• 30th Celebration: released under 30 days ago; card prices are still settling and usually fall, so treat its return as provisional.

$ back per $1 = average card value per pack (TCGplayer market) ÷ cost per pack via the cheapest of box ÷36, ETB ÷9, bundle ÷6 or a loose pack. 'After fees' sells cards ≥ $1 at market less 13.25% and bulk at cash buylist rates. Verdict: Rip ≥ 90¢ (never for low-confidence odds or unmeasured rarities), Lean keep ≥ 60¢, else Keep sealed. Prices: 7-day median to 2026-09-26.

The cheapest way into a modern English set is a Perfect Order booster box at $4.93 a pack (1.10× the $4.49 pack MSRP). Across released main sets an ETB costs a median +60% more per pack than the box, a booster bundle +24% and a Pokémon Center ETB +128%. (Based on the single snapshot of 2026-09-26; 7-day medians start once 7 daily snapshots exist.)

• Destined Rivals: the cheapest route is Destined Rivals Booster Pack at $9.16/pack, -21% vs the box.
• Mega Evolution: the cheapest route is Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box at $8.01/pack, -7% vs the box.
• Perfect Order: the cheapest route is Perfect Order Booster Box Case at $4.57/pack, -7% vs the box.
• Chaos Rising: the cheapest route is Chaos Rising Booster Box Case at $5.17/pack, -2% vs the box.
• Pitch Black: the cheapest route is Pitch Black Booster Box Case at $4.94/pack, -5% vs the box.

Dollars per pack using the buy-now price (our latest TCGplayer snapshot (2026-09-26); 7-day medians start once 7 daily snapshots exist (1 so far)): TCGplayer market price, or the cheapest live listing when that is higher; a listing under 0.7x market is ignored. Pack counts only where verified (box 36, ETB 9, Pokémon Center ETB 11, bundle 6, box case 216, ETB case 90, bundle case 150, sleeved case 144, 3-pack blister 3, checklane blister 1, mini tin 2); anything else is hidden. Extras (promos, sleeves) are ignored.

For sets released since 2024, the Japanese print of the same special art costs 0.64× the English one on TCGplayer (87% of 157 pairs are cheaper in Japanese). For older sets it flips: Japanese costs 1.44× English.

• Biggest example: Umbreon ex — $1,384 in English (Prismatic Evolutions) vs $412 in Japanese (Terastal Fest ex); ¥59,800 (≈$379) in a Tokyo shop.
• Illustration rares: Japanese art rares cost 0.42× the English illustration rare (460 pairs).
• The discount holds in Europe too: on Cardmarket the Japanese copy is 0.73× the English one.
• Buying in Tokyo: shop asks (yuyu-tei, in stock) are 0.88× the TCGplayer price of the same Japanese card — after the ~12.5% US tariff and shipping, importing rarely beats buying the Japanese copy in the US.
• Japanese shops buy back at about 51% of their own sell price.

US prices: TCGplayer market (English = category 3, Japanese = category 85). Pairs matched by name within mapped sets (special illustration rare ↔ special art rare). Tokyo: yuyu-tei shop asks, refreshed monthly.

The average pack value is carried by rare chase cards: the typical (median) pack is worth $1.73, about 42% of the average. Only 3%–17% of packs are worth what they cost, and a sealed booster box beats its price in a median 4.5% of openings.

• Sealed unit is the booster box where one exists, otherwise the Elite Trainer Box.
• Real boxes spread hits more evenly than independent packs (collation), so the true chance of a box beating its price is probably at or below these figures.

Monte Carlo: 720,000 simulated packs per set, each hit slot drawing a real card at its published odds; seeded by (as-of date, set) so reruns match. God packs and rarities with no measured odds are excluded.

The most valuable card of a set typically sells for 4.3% of what it costs, on average, to open packs until you pull it. Chasing a specific card by ripping is a losing trade in every set with published odds.

• Single price ÷ expected cost to pull that exact card, median by rarity: Double 0.09%, Ultra 0.10%, Illustration 0.34%, SIR 0.53%, Hyper 0.12%, Mega Hyper 1.67%, ACE SPEC 0.06%.
• Not shown: Black Bolt, White Flare, 30th Celebration (their top card's rarity has no measured odds).

Packs to pull = cards of that rarity ÷ the rarity's per-pack rate (equal odds within a rarity, as TCGplayer's per-card counts support); cost uses the cheapest cost per pack.

In the median set the single most valuable card is 20% of what a complete master set costs. Phantasmal Flames is the most top-heavy: Mega Charizard X ex alone is 60%.

• Sealed prices do not discount one-card sets: across 23 sets, pack price tracks the value of the cards inside (rank correlation 0.96) but not how much of it sits in one card (0.06). If a set's chase falls, its sealed price has nothing priced in.
• One-card sets (top card ≥ 40% of the set): Phantasmal Flames.
• 30th Celebration: some top cards have no completed sales yet and use the lowest listing price.

Master set = one of every card in every printing TCGplayer lists (reverse holos and Poké Ball / Master Ball / ball patterns included; code cards and sealed excluded). Share = card price ÷ master-set cost.

Across 789 chase cards, Cardmarket's 7-day average is 3% cheaper than TCGplayer overall — but sets under 6 months old are 39% dearer in Europe and sets over 2 years old are 20% cheaper.

• By set age: 0–6 mo 1.39× (34 cards); 6–12 mo 1.14× (90 cards); 12–24 mo 1.04× (322 cards); 24+ mo 0.80× (343 cards).
• Controlling for price and rarity, Europe gets about 15% cheaper relative to the US for every year a set has been out.
• The hottest chases cost more in Europe: Mega Gengar ex (Ascended Heroes) €1,009 ≈ $1,150 vs $866; Mega Charizard X ex (Phantasmal Flames) €834 ≈ $951 vs $680; Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (Destined Rivals) €573 ≈ $653 vs $399.
• To import EU→US after the 10% tariff, fees and ~$40 shipping, the EU price must be below 54% of the US price on a $100 card and 86% on a $1,000 card; under ~$45 it never pays.

Language blend: Cardmarket's price guide mixes English, German, French, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese copies and all conditions of a card, so it understates what an English near-mint copy costs in Europe — 'cheaper in Europe' is overstated and 'dearer in Europe' understated. FX: EUR/USD 1.1403 (ECB, 2026-09-25). Cardmarket via TCGdex (7-day average); US = TCGplayer market.

A complete master set costs from $484 (Journey Together) to $5,504 (Prismatic Evolutions); 30th Celebration is $17,355, mostly a few ultra-rare cards priced from listings. But $100 spent on the cheapest cards first already covers 63%–96% of a set's cards; the last few chase cards are most of the cost.

• '$100 buys' counts cards bought cheapest-first; most sets are 80–90% sub-$1 printings.

Card counts include every printing (reverse holos and pattern variants).

The Japanese copy is cheapest against Prismatic Evolutions (0.22×) and Ascended Heroes (0.43×), and dearest against Scarlet & Violet Base Set (2.19×). English sets from before 2024 were reprinted heavily, so there the Japanese print is the scarcer one.

• By English price: <$10 → 1.57× (20 pairs)
• By English price: $10–25 → 0.81× (59 pairs)
• By English price: $25–50 → 0.73× (58 pairs)
• By English price: $50–100 → 0.64× (36 pairs)
• By English price: $100–250 → 0.77× (20 pairs)
• By English price: $250+ → 0.49× (17 pairs)

Median of JP ÷ EN across special-art pairs; sets with fewer than 3 pairs omitted.

A Pokémon Center ETB is the best per-pack deal at MSRP (0.98× a standard ETB) but trades at a median 1.75× the standard ETB (1.46× per pack). ETB packs cost 1.61× box packs (MSRP: 1.24×); sealed cases save little. (Based on the single snapshot of 2026-09-26; 7-day medians start once 7 daily snapshots exist.)

Prices: our latest TCGplayer snapshot (2026-09-26); 7-day medians start once 7 daily snapshots exist (1 so far). Case markets rest on few sales. English/Japanese uses TCGplayer prices for imported Japanese boxes (30 packs x 5 cards vs 36 x 10) and averages both halves when one English set combines two Japanese sets; unmapped sets are skipped.

Delta Reign (release 2026-11-06) pre-orders at 1.63× MSRP for the box, with the Pokémon Center ETB at 4.41× the standard ETB.

Pre-order prices are thin and usually fall after release. Sets without an MSRP entry show only ratios that need no MSRP.

The median Special Illustration Rare sells for $35.02, an Illustration Rare $11.74 and a Double Rare $0.78. About 75% of what you can actually sell from a pack is Illustration Rares and SIR-or-rarer; bulk is 36% of the headline value but 6% of the sellable value.

• Double Rares and Ultra Rares hit often but are effectively bulk; Illustration Rares carry about as much pack value as SIRs.

Share columns: each rarity's share of a pack's value, averaged over the high/medium-confidence sets that contain it (the bulk row and the lede average per-set totals). Prices are per card (holo printing).

Across 23 sets, what a pack costs sealed tracks the value of the cards inside (rank correlation 0.96) but ignores how much of that value is one card (0.06). Sealed trades at a median 2.08× its card value.

• A log-log fit of pack price on the top card's price and set age explains 75% of the variation; using the top card's share instead explains 17%.

Cross-sectional association on one day; small n.

On modern English chase cards ($30+, sets under 3 years old) the cheapest TCGplayer listing sits at 90% of recent sales, and 4.5% have nothing listed at or below their last sale price. Japanese cards on TCGplayer are thinner (11%).

• English, by set age (cards $5+): 0–6 mo 0.89 (8% thin); 6–12 mo 0.85 (0% thin); 1–3 yr 0.84 (2% thin); 3–10 yr 0.79 (11% thin); 10+ yr 0.70 (22% thin).
• Thinnest set this week: Start Deck 100 Battle Collection (JP) — 32% of its cards have no listing at or below recent sales.

TCGplayer 'low' is the cheapest listing in any condition (shipping excluded); 'market' is recent sales, mostly near mint. A low well below market usually means a played copy, not a deal.

Card-level flags need the condition to hold on 4 of the last 7 daily snapshots; 1 snapshot so far, so this week shows levels only.

Thin = cheapest listing above 110% of recent sales; gap = below 75%. Modern cards ($30+, sets under 3 years old); must hold on 4 of the last 7 snapshots.

Prices are TCGplayer market prices (7-day median to 2026-09-26); pull rates come from published openings of 700–8,500+ packs per set, mostly TCGplayer's.

• Card value (market) = every card at TCGplayer market price; sellable = cards ≥ $1 at market less 13.25% TCGplayer fees, cards < $1 at cash bulk rates ($8 / $15 / $80 per 1,000).
• Rarities with no measured odds (Black White Rare, RGB Mew, Ascended Heroes ball patterns) and god packs are left out of every EV rather than guessed.
• Sets released under 30 days ago are flagged 'settling' and kept off the landing tiles; sets without published odds show no EV.

Pack contents: 4 commons, 3 uncommons, a rare slot and two reverse-holo slots per 10-card pack (30th Celebration: 5-card packs).